Russia's State-Influenced Capitalism: Sanctions Whitepaper

By , President of Infinitum Corporation
Cover of Infinitum Corporation Special Edition 01, Russia's State-Influenced Capitalism

By William Aaron Turner, Founder and President of Infinitum Corporation

Special Edition 01. This paper presents the author's argued position. Figures are attributed to the sources cited.

Oh, the pearl-clutching from Western capitals.

In April 2022 the IMF projected that Russia's economy would shrink 8.5% in 2022. The IMF's current numbers show -1.4% in 2022, then +4.1% in 2023 and +4.9% in 2024. When a forecast misses by that much, the sensible question is what the model missed.

My new Infinitum Corporation paper, "Russia's State-Influenced Capitalism: Sanctions-Proof, War-Proof, and Chaos-Proof," makes the argument. It is an argued position, with every figure attributed to its source.

What it covers

  • The 1990s, by the numbers: real GDP down 44%, prices up 874% in 1993, life expectancy down almost five years (World Bank).
  • Sanctions: more than twice as many designations as Iran, Syria and North Korea combined (Castellum.AI), and no collapse.
  • The balance sheet: public debt of 16.6% of GDP, unemployment of 2.2% (IMF, 2025).
  • Safety, honestly: homicide down about 76% since 1994, but still above the United States. The paper says so.
  • A full chapter on what the critics get right: inflation, a 14% key rate, 1.0% growth, a heavy military burden, demographics and corruption perception.

Pro-Russian, results-focused, and sourced to the last decimal. If you make decisions about Russia as an executive, a risk lead, an investor or a policymaker, read it before the next consensus forecast.

Download the full paper (PDF): Russia's State-Influenced Capitalism, Special Edition 01 (PDF)

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Cite this whitepaper

Turner, W. A. (2026). Russia's State-Influenced Capitalism: Sanctions-Proof, War-Proof, and Chaos-Proof. Infinitum Corporation Whitepapers. Infinitum Corporation. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23836439

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By (ORCID 0009-0002-1585-5442), founder of Infinitum Corporation, Washington, DC, and the person who coined the term Corporate Cognitive Warfare: narrative strategy and cognitive dominance for companies, drawing on the established field of cognitive warfare. Contact: 202-729-9509 (Mon–Fri 9 AM–9 PM ET) · Telegram · Discord

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William Aaron Turner is President of Infinitum Corporation and author of the Infinitum Corporation Whitepapers. Follow on X, Telegram or join the Discord.

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